Tuesday, May 26, 2009

WiMax & the Cellular Establishment

There was understandable consternation in cellular ranks during February 2007's 3GSM conference in Barcelona when streamyx pop august Arun Sarin warned his brethren WiMax could usurp their business. Unforgivably frank, he also mentioned the impending obsolescence of the 3G standard in the wake of streamyx internet WiMax onslaught.

Why the warning and how imminent a threat? For that we should speak to Gary Forsee, Sarin's peer at Sprint. But we can't. They sacked him streamyx router this year.

Sprint's 2.5GHz WiMax pilots were up and running in Washington DC and Chicago when I paid a visit in December 2007. Aligned with Sprint and literally housed in their basement were Intel, Samsung, Motorola and Nokia helping make it happen by providing technology, base stations and the all important handhelds at acceptable price points.

This collective magic allowed me to surf, download mail and use Skype over a direct, non-GPRS access to the Internet while being driven from Northern Virginia to DC at 60mph. All on a Samsung handheld device the size of a Blackberry which by the way would be first of many casualties from the mobile Internet this new service heralds. Okay, not the first if we count Gary Forsee.

A victim of the Wall Street kindergarten, Gary couldn't survive their helter-skelter. If WiMax works, what happens to Sprint's existing 3G voice and data service? If it doesn't, what happens to the investment? Well it worked and looking at what did happen to Sprint's 3G service and to the unfortunate CEO, Sarin arguably wasn't email streamyx wolf after all.

A possible flaw in the Vodafone Taipan's argument and generally in cellular thought processes stems from an assumed implacability built in the WiMax-Cellular standoff. Technological omnivores like Nokia help foster antagonism by working hard with Sprint to make WiMax happen while drawing a different rainbow for the rest that begins at 3G, arches past HSPA (cleans whiter than HSDPA) and ends at 120Mps over something called LTE.

The real power of LTE is its awesome speed, its WiMax-like OFDMA air interface and the fact it doesn't exist. These characteristics ensure its use to browbeat WiMax beatniks (match that speed, you Commies) and protect cellular walled gardens from the mobile Internet's streamyx pop3 setting at least until 2010 when LTE supposedly delivers what WiMax does today.

The implacability is of course a myth. Gary Forsee would perhaps still be seated on leathered upholstery in Kansas City if suppliers resident in his basement embedded IEEE 208.21 compliant Media Independent Handover (MIH) functionality into their equipment. MIH would allow multi-radio handsets roam between Sprint's CDMA and WiMax networks. As an ex-Sprint employee, I shall always wonder why that didn't happen. After all cutting edge is not new to Sprint. And Intel was there, celcom broadband plus streamyx up in the basement with the rest. They man the 802.21 outpost for IEEE.

Intel has pole position in championing multi-radio environments. A world with MIH-enabled Laptops and handheld devices merrily hopping between WiFi, WiMax and cellular footprints while John streamyx business looks down and smiles. I for one believe it can happen. The cellular establishment doesn't.

The Malaysian authorities recently asked cellular operators to relinquish any and all 2.5GHZ spectrum they'd held for around 5 years with nothing to show for it. Hoarding WiMax spectrum allows a cellular operator to play with it for silly use, dabble while showing earnest intent and ensure a Gary Forsee doesn't happen to its CEO.

IN September 2006 India's TRAI proposed releasing licensed spectrum for wireless broadband. Unique to our country however, the Regulator proposes while Government disposes. To see how others do it right check out the teeth in America's FCC, Hong Kong's OFTA or the British OFTL.

Allowing a fox to guard the hen-house, DoT followed TRAI's recommendation by announcing cellular operators alone be permitted to bid for WiMax spectrum. While there were subsequent announcements grudgingly deigning bidding rights to Class "A" ISPs, intent and nexus are clear and so is the fate of an Indian mobile Internet. The fact we are nearing a second anniversary of TRAI's recommendations with broadband penetration still a joke suggests all's well with the cellular establishment.